Who wins and who loses the European elections

Horns, croissants, touch wood and horseshoes aside, the next European competition will also have very important implications on our home politics

ROME – “Setting the bar brings bad luck” said the leaders in chorus to those who up until the last minute asked about the percentage of votes expected in the next European elections. But horns, croissants, touch wood and horseshoes aside, the next European competition will also have very important implications on our home politics. Nobody wants to set the bar? Let’s think about the possibilities then, about the percentage by which a leader will be able to say that his party has won. With what will follow, with the new ‘picture’ of the real balance of power that will emerge from the polls. Because we vote with the proportional system, where everyone runs for themselves and against everyone else . Even within its own centre-right and centre-left coalition. In the end, in addition to those elected to the European Parliament, based on the percentage taken it will be possible to understand who will remain in the saddle and who will have to step aside. Although the comparison, with a little forcing, it seems appropriate to think with the result of the 2022 political elections. Different but still close vote, also taking into account that almost the entire electoral campaign was based on topics of internal politics, of Europe and it is rarely seen. But let’s think about the data.

THE CENTER-RIGHT

Let’s start with the center-right majority that governs Italy. Brothers of Italy, of the leader Giorgia Meloni, received 26% of the votes in the 2022 elections. So a result close to (or above) 26% will sound like a clear victory, if instead it falls below 24% there will be something to adjust. Matteo Salvini’s League is playing the game of life: in the political elections he received around 9% of the votes. Salvini is aiming for a double-digit result, which is why he nominated General Vannacci, even against the opinion of some big league members. Below 9% there will be trouble for Salvini, he will certainly be presented with the bill. For Forza Italia it is an equally important match. In the general elections, Berlusconi’s party had obtained 8%. Many feared that with the death of its founder, Forza Italia was doomed. Instead, the leader Antonio Tajani has been able to position the party well, a ‘quiet’ force anchored to the European People’s Party, and now many are expecting it to be overtaken, with Forza Italia reaching double figures by overtaking the League .

THE CENTRO-SINISTRA

On the opposition side, the Democratic Party of the new leader Elly Schlein is under the spotlight. At the 2022 elections (without Schlein, ed.) the Dems had taken 19%. So there will be talk of victory with a result above 20%, but there are many who are convinced that with the new management we can even ‘recover’ the percentage of the 2019 European elections, around 23%.

THE CENTER

Contest to the last vote between Italia Viva of Matteo Renzi allied with +Europa of Emma Bonino and the ‘enemy’ of Action, Carlo Calenda. Many are ready to bet that Renzi will be able to overcome the 4% barrier, while for ‘only’ Calenda it will be very difficult. But the leader of Action is sure to get rid of it. The Left Green Alliance will be able to overcome the barrier, and even with 4.1% it will be a success.

THE M5S

Difficult match for Giuseppe Conte’s M5S. In the political elections it took 15.5%, many now fear a drastic drop in support, especially linked to the strong abstentionism that is feared in the South where the Movement gets the bulk of the support. The aftermath could also be complicated for Conte, with a result well below the policies there will certainly be a price to pay. But the ‘king’ of 5-star communication, Rocco Casalino, reassured everyone by saying: don’t worry, it will be fine.