What’s happening in Iran now? The possible scenarios

The Dire Agency asked Saman Vakil, director of Middle East and Persian Gulf studies at the Chatham House think tank

ROME – A “difficult” election, a few months after a parliamentary vote marked by the lowest turnout ever, without however new “charismatic” leaders on the horizon and at the same time “flexible” times: this is the perspective for Iran according to Saman Vakil, director of studies on the Middle East and the Persian Gulf at the Chatham House think tank.

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In an interview with the Dire agency, the political scientist reflects on the scenarios that open up following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, victim of a helicopter crash yesterday together with his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

WHAT THE CONSTITUTION PROVIDES

The Constitution, in particular article 131, provides that the deputy head of state, now Mohammad Mokhber, assumes the leadership of the Islamic Republic. At the same time, the leader, the president of Parliament and the highest ranking magistrate will have to organize elections to be held within 50 days. However, Vakil focuses on the political aspects. “It will not be easy to hold presidential elections after a record parliamentary vote due to the lowest turnout ever” underlines the scholar. “At the moment the system cannot count on charismatic, inspiring and flexible leaders capable of taking the lead.”

THE POSITION OF ISRAEL

In the background there is also Israel, involved in a political and military conflict with Tehran last month, which erupted after a bombing of the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus attributed to Tel Aviv. “Nothing to say about that,” stresses Vakil. “To date there is nothing significant.” The Tehran media underlined that the accident was most likely caused by “adverse weather conditions” and in particular by the thick fog that fell yesterday on the region of Iran on the border with Azerbaijan where the The helicopter was flying. An Israeli official, on condition of anonymity, today denied any connection between Tel Aviv and Raisi’s death. “It wasn’t us,” the manager reported, in a statement also relaunched by the online edition of the Haaretz newspaper. Vakil agrees that the focus should be on Tehran.

THE NEXT ELECTIONS

His thesis is that in the coming weeks the leaders of the Islamic Republic “will try to show unity”and “to increase public opinion support” for the government. Probable, according to the expert, is also compliance with the constitutional rules regarding new elections. According to data from Tehran’s Ministry of the Interior, turnout in the legislative elections last March exceeded just over 41 percent. The figure was the lowestfor this type of consultation since the Islamic revolution which in 1979 overthrew the last Shah of Persia, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Chatham House is an internationally reference study centre, founded in London in 1920.