France towards parliamentary stalemate: what happens now?

Against all expectations, the NFP alliance between LFI, Socialist Party (PS), Greens and Communists will be the largest force but is still far from the 289 seats required for an absolute majority. Mélenchon asked Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the winning alliance and to implement the entire program of the NFP. But without the majority the left bloc would have been forced to negotiate on every single initiative.

The French constitution allows the President to choose anyone as prime minister. In the current case, appointing one from the radical left would entail the risk of repeated votes of no confidence supported not only by the center-right and the far right, but probably also by Macron’s own centrist camp.

Unlike many countries in continental Europe, France has never had experience of broad coalitions since the times of the Fourth Republic, but at the moment this seems to be perhaps the most rational solution. Much will depend on LFI’s willingness to compromise, and on the response of the moderate left if Mélenchon’s party refuses to cooperate.

A good part of Macron’s centrists, meanwhile, have already said that they will not form an alliance with LFI. A mainstream coalition, while possible in principle, would be difficult to build given the parties’ divergent positions on issues such as taxes, pensions and environmentalism. And it would remain vulnerable to motions of censure supported by both LFI and the RN.

So what? What’s left? Instead of attempting to form a formal coalition government, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal last week suggested that traditional parties could form several ad hoc alliances to vote on individual pieces of legislation. Macron had already practiced this path after losing his majority in 2022, but with limited success, resorting on numerous occasions to special constitutional powers, such as the unpopular Article 49.3, to pass a law without a parliamentary vote.

>The president could also consider the appointment of a technical government, “Italian-style”, composed of expert economists, senior public officials, academics, diplomats and business or union leaders. But for France it would be an unprecedented solution.

The only certainty at the moment is that France is heading towards a long period of uncertainty and political instability, potentially characterized, at best, by a minimum of legislative progress and, at worst, by a parliamentary stalemate.